and that if she were to come to the party, then the chance of her getting drunk would be 51 per cent. Then the premises of the above argument would be true. But the conclusion would not thereby be probable. It might be that if she does not come to the party then she certainly will not get drunk, in which case the probability of her getting drunk will be, again, only slightly greater than 1/4. Of course, if the probability of Edna's coming the party were higher, or the likelihood of her getting drunk if she did were higher, or both, then the probability of her getting drunk would be higher.

Some arguments contain a premise with a word like 'probably' and a premise with a quantifier such as 'most':

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