Interest rates will increase in the next year

Clearly this argument is of no use to you. It is logically correct - it is deductively valid - but such an argument could not persuade anyone of the conclusion who did not already accept it. For if you did not know whether or not to expect interest rates to increase, then of course you didn't know whether to expect them to decrease, or to remain unchanged. If you had had some reason to accept P, then you could not have been wondering whether to accept C.

Here is another illustration. Suppose Bert drops a coin into a cup of coffee, and it settles to the bottom 'heads up'. Of course neither Bert nor Barney can see it, so neither knows that it landed heads up. Then Bert and Barney consider the following argument:

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